Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
